So if we are in double pump cycle this time, which seems very likely, it is certain that we are going to see great gains in coming months. And in case we are not in a super cycle, like some people are saying we are, I was wondering that after topping in this cycle where will be the bottom in the next bear market.
Here is a very interesting indicator. So in the previous cycles, if you chart an area from the high of the previous cycle to low of the following bear market, there is an area between Fibonacci level 1.618 and 1.486. This range has always acted as the bottom of bear market in the next cycle.
For example if you chart the high of $1156 attained by bitcoin in 2013 cycle to the next bear market low, you get Fibonacci 1.618 at around $ 4207 and Fibonacci 1.486 at around $3242 and that was the bottom for bear market cycle of 2017. The similar is true for 2013 cycle is you chart the same area from the high and lows in 2011.
So now if we chart a Fibonacci area from 2017 high of around $20000 to the low of next bear market of around $3000, we get the range between $61000 to $47000.
If that plays out exactly this time as well than we are probably at the bottom of next bear market. Obvious history doesn’t repeat itself but offten resonates so consider this data as well in your portfolio planning
I hope it helps someone out there. (Happy investing)