The reason we’re dumping – “Boom & Bust Cycle” + Fed interest rate hikes, cost of living kicking in, etc. Expect this to continue a few more weeks at the very least.


I am not trying to be smug. I’m here to give you some insight, because 75% of /r/cryptocurrency‘s reader count has been here less than 4 years – or “one full bitcoin halving cycle.” I’ve been buying since October 2017. Presently I have zero debt. I come from a background that has some material wealth, let’s say, in the lower 6 digit figures of wealth in the American midwest. My cryptocurrency portfolio is down by, I estimate, at least 70%. My portfolio was in six digit territory, but now it’s in five digit territory.

A meme to start things off, since I’m a long-term holder:

And the explanation: In short, the “dip” we are experiencing is ordinary trading activity with market circumstances that are beyond what you or I can control (the Fed hiking interest rates, investment strategies switching for large institutions with lots of cash, etc.). If you don’t already know what the difference is between a risk-on environment and a risk-off environment, you need to learn it quickly. Right now we are in a “risk-off” environment, meaning that people and institutions with money are going with what they call “safe” investments – they’re putting their money in to index funds, high yield savings accounts, and -in some places- real estate because they want to multiply their dollars. Why? The money printer isn’t printing any more, this means wall street wants to take the dollars they have and multiply them and they are forced to do so without the fed’s help. Please see this chart and change the timescale to “all”:

I can’t predict the future, but this is what I think could happen:
1. Bitcoin dominance could likely hit 55-60%, on this chart, click “all” for the timescale, and then look at what BTC dominance did from Jan 2018 to December 2018. – This will make holding altcoins risky.
2. When bitcoin drops 10%, you can expect everything else to drop 20%, or at least that’s the logical conjecture that I get from just glancing at coingecko –
3. If the fed raising interest rates causes a recession, we know what they usually do to “fix” the problem – print more money. I don’t know when how or even “if” this will happen.
4. With regards to Eth and the “merge” coming up, it could be a dark horse. Please do your own research on this topic. At the end of 2018 I remember another big technological development for XRP that caused it to surge by 90% in two days’ time.
5. In 2017 Bitcoin topped at 20k, in 2018 bitcoin bottomed at 3100. Eth topped at 1400 and bottomed at 85. I do not think we will see similar losses.
6. A continuation off of point 3 – Michael Saylor’s been preaching bitcoin’s function as a hedge against inflation since 2020, there must be big financial institutions waiting on the sidelines to buy bitcoin at the 15k-25k range. I know I am.

That is all, I hope this helps the new people.

EDIT: Sorry so some people in the comments prompted me to address that part in the title of this thread where I said “A few more weeks.” We can expect interest rate hikes to “attempt” to tackle inflation, then when mid terms roll along maybe we’ll see the fed back off on that so that the present administration that’s in power can stay in power.

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