The market has dropped -48% from its 90 day high and here I tabulate how many months it had took to recover from such an event.

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source: coinbase API. They only have data starting 2016, Jan 1st so this is where I start my analysis.

since 2016 this even has occurred 14 times in monthly bins.

method:

I calculated the lagging 90 day high closing price and then figure out how many days and months it took to recover. Currently bitcoin is ~ 48% of the 90 day high so I filter by events this has occur by month. I then figure out how many days or months it took to recover had you bought at the absolute highest.

results:

date close BTC.USD.volume max_90 pct_change recover_days recover_months 2018-01 9014.23 38171.97 19650.01 -54.1 1033 34.4 2018-02 6905.19 59578.6982 19650.01 -64.9 1029 34.3 2018-03 6816.01 15434.5228 17098.99 -60.1 961 32 2018-04 6619.01 10756.5497 17098.99 -61.3 956 31.9 2018-06 5851.66 7769.81165 9800 -40.3 358 11.9 2018-11 3731.32 36455.2237 7360 -49.3 168 5.6 2018-12 3183 9343.2724 6750 -52.8 147 4.9 2019-01 3397.42 8709.6973 6503.12 -47.8 102 3.4 2019-02 3409.57 6032.81895 6503.12 -47.6 96 3.2 2020-03 4857.1 113902.203 10371.33 -53.2 137 4.6 2021-05 34627.82 27999.1507 63588.22 -45.5 143 4.8 2021-06 31594.63 26505.1927 63588.22 -50.3 116 3.9 2021-07 29796.16 18114.1529 58958.05 -49.5 87 2.9 2022-01 35101.33 21310.7209 67554.84 -48

So as you can see, historically this has occurred 14 times since 2016. In 2018 was the worse, because just when you thought you bought at the absolute lowest, the ATH actually shifts and every month it kept on dropping.

Median

the median months it took to recover is 4.9 months or 147 days. The lowest it dropped was 64.9% on 2018, Feb.

Here is a histogram.

https://preview.redd.it/7ul6wj37z9d81.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=640ecac37cc7b325ffa979954eac0cbbd38b8fc0

TLDR: buckle up; historically it takes about 4.9 months or 147 days to recover from a drop of -40-64%. The shortest it took was 2.9 months and the longest was 34.4 months to recover. The lowest it ever drop was on Feb 2018 about 64.9% and that took 1029 days to recover. The good news is that it will likely recover again.

edit: A few comments below observed that the recovery phase seems to be getting faster so plotted this this as well.

recover time

submitted by /u/greenappletree
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