If you bought at the bottom of the last bear market: how likely is it that the coins you bought survived, and what would your returns look like? Another short data analysis


As many of you seemingly enjoyed my other analysis I did earlier today, I thought I’d share this with you as well. In my first post, I analyzed how many coins from the top 200 of the peak of the bull run in 2017 survive to this day and how they developed.

But what if you didn’t buy at the top, but if you waited until prices dropped and somehow managed to buy the bottom? Is it still likely that your coins died during the remainder of the bear market or did everything go up after that? Are those that are looking forward to the bear to DCA rightly doing so, or should they be worried?

I choose December 16th 2018 – almost exactly 3 years ago – as the bottom, as BTC reached it’s lowest price during the bear market on that day, other coins, of course, had lower lows on other days. I again scraped the top 200 on that day and checked how they developed until today. As you can imagine, things look quite a bit different than my other analysis. Looking at the same type of visualisation as before, you can see that things are looking MUCH better now.

29 out of 200 coins are now worth more than 10 times what they were worth 3 years ago 123 out of 200 coins are now worth more than 3 years ago 55 out of 200 coins are now worth less than half of what they were worth back then 30 out of 200 coins are now worth less than 10% of what they were worth back then, 20 of those are dead – meaning that most coins that died or went down a ton did so rather early in the bear market. Those which stuck around until it bottomed most likely survived. coins that already had a higher market cap back then definitely performed better. Every single non-stablecoin until # 39 (!) went up, the best performing coins were all in or close to the top 100, almost exclusively coins outside of the top 100 died again, BNB is the best performing coin, it’s up x119, followed by THETA, LINK and DOGE XLM performed bad as a stablecoin since then and went x2.8 instead

But you should compare alts to BTC and ETH, not USD!! ugh, okay, if you insist:

BTC went up x 14.9, 23 other coins outperformed BTC ETH went up x 46,9, 8 other coins outperformed ETH

I also labeled them in the plot, so you can see where they rank.

Disclaimer: in hindsight, it is easy to say what crazy profits one would have made. However, back then it was impossible to tell that this was the bottom, and nobody knew whether crypto would go up again, this was after a year of continuously falling prices. You won’t be able to time the bottom in the next bear market, and history will not necessarily repeat itself. This is an analysis of the past, not a prediction about the future

submitted by /u/mic_droo
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