I spent a week trading based on an AI’s signals, so you don’t have to. Here are the results.

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AI is taking over many jobs, starting from cashiers all the way to doctors. I wanted to see if AI could replace traders by running a small (and maybe a costly) experiment.

Rules are simple. For the next week, I’ll long/short Bitcoin based on an AI twitter bot‘s forecasts. Every position will be opened at 00:00 UTC and closed at 23:59 UTC.

Our start balance is $1000. And we won’t use leverage in our trades.

Day 1/7: Great start?

https://preview.redd.it/u0cbdnzg1n391.png?width=537&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd02d5ade8d842836c3e8849d98f1dc0a4b2fbf9

https://preview.redd.it/klmq40rr1n391.png?width=664&format=png&auto=webp&s=e2a6715f19fd7f0301bfffe75decbff1d0643ae2

The bot’s forecast was barely bearish. We opened a short position at $29.5K (when the forecast was tweeted) and closed it at $29K (at the end of the day). We ended up with a profit of $17. This brings our final balance to $1017. Probably luck. We will see by the end of this experiment.

Day 2/7: Sometime it happens

https://preview.redd.it/30lwoo8n2n391.png?width=542&format=png&auto=webp&s=93946c2f5e9a027da1144dcb3c3be2a63ac6874a

This time I couldn’t really tell if the bot was bullish or bearish, so I didn’t open any positions that day.

Day 3/7: Two wins in a row?

https://preview.redd.it/5xo4bk0a3n391.png?width=536&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e187438ffd3548059e3ae1151b714822a98ecec

https://preview.redd.it/xe5huq6b3n391.png?width=644&format=png&auto=webp&s=03ea13b5a5f7685d583ea8fa07a312913300c149

Here, the forecast was clearly bullish. Time to long. We opened a long position at $28.6K (when the forecast was tweeted) and closed it at $29K (at the end of the day). We ended up with a profit of $14. This brings our final balance to $1031. Two wins in a row baby!

Day 4/7: THREE wins in a row?

https://preview.redd.it/galtlt9w3n391.png?width=536&format=png&auto=webp&s=1bda49e023e869f0099f102ede3288241d6c08b2

https://preview.redd.it/k20ww8gx3n391.png?width=660&format=png&auto=webp&s=e070877ad3a2d91043e0923f900674eef55f6f70

This is our luckiest day yet (I really hope this continues). We longed at $29K and closed the position at $30.3K, ending up with a profit of $46. This brings our final balance to $1077.

Day 5/7: I knew it’d happen

https://preview.redd.it/vo927hr55n391.png?width=533&format=png&auto=webp&s=86edac09d9330d4d0e687bba7da8b506371cb5ec

https://preview.redd.it/c1syxmx65n391.png?width=682&format=png&auto=webp&s=06ae1a81129a4401adc2a9a852998ebb296dfb56

Here, the bot seemed neutral and bearish at the same time, so short it is. We opened a short position at $29.5K and closed it at $31.8K (at the end of the day). We ended up with a loss of $84. We’ve successfully wiped all of our previous profits, bringing our final balance to $993. Yay!

Day 6:

https://preview.redd.it/z7jquj3a6n391.png?width=537&format=png&auto=webp&s=7fd0c60c3bd889b2e03c21a9c7a5aa5c271e7f7c

Here, the bot seemed neutral, and its confidence was slightly high, so we didn’t end up opening any positions that day.

Day 7/7: Comeback or Horrible Fail?

https://preview.redd.it/oc5tysfj7n391.png?width=543&format=png&auto=webp&s=0627a3744df61afd0633595193f01418106edaca

https://preview.redd.it/nnn66avk7n391.png?width=667&format=png&auto=webp&s=e06653510c139ff7d5f5a65f5a51c8e21d37ae32

Ah yes. Nothing goes up forever. The bot here was barely bullish, so I ended up longing. Big mistake. We longed at $31.8K (when the forecast was tweeted) and closed it at $29.7K (at the end of the day). We ended up with a loss of $66.

Summary

We won three trades and lost two. Our win rate seems to be 60%. We won a total of $77 and lost $150. Finishing up with a total loss of $73.

Of course, five trades aren’t enough to evaluate any trading strategy. The bot seemed to do well initially, but then the market started crashing.

This small experiment shows that the crypto market is genuinely unpredictable. Not even by a shitty AI Twitter bot that made me lose $73, which probably flips a coin to generate random predictions.

submitted by /u/xk4rimx
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