Ethereum might split into 2 chains after the merge- A historical look at price action of previous splits with Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Monero

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Whenever there’s a hard fork, there’s a chance one coin splits into two. The first time this occurred was with Ethereum in July 2016, due to the DAO Hack, which created Ethereum Classic. Since then, other notable forks include Bitcoin to Bitcoin Cash (July 2017), Bitcoin Cash to Bitcoin SV (November 2018), Litecoin to Litecoin Cash (February 2018), and Monero to Monero Classic (April, 2018).

All these splits happened for philosophical reasons I won’t get into, but what I am interested in exploring is how the old and new chains reacted in the market and how the price action played out.

The following table lists the 5 hard forks that caused the splits. The prices listed were gathered from CoinMarketCap and listed as the close price on the appropriate date. You will be able to see the price movements through the years and the relative difference of the old chain to the new chain. The dates listed are the first date CMC had price info on the coin, not necessarily the day the fork happened.

NOTE: To scroll through the table, scroll to the bottom of the post. There will a scroll bar.

Chain Split Date Original Chain Price 1 day before split Original Chain Day of Split New Chain Day of Split OG Chain 1 month later New chain 1 month later OG 1 year later New 1 year later OG 2 years later New 2 years later OG 3 years later New 3 years later OG 4 years later New 4 years later OG 5 years later New 5 years later OG 6 years later New 6 years later Ethereum to Ethereum Classic 7/24/2016 $14.30 $12.75 $0.93 $11.04 $1.44 $224.71 $15.88 $479.00 $16.63 $217.00 $6.12 $279.00 $6.25 $2189 $4948 $1599.00 $25.60 Ratio OG: New 13.72 7.67 14.15 28.80 3546 44.64 44.24 62.46 . Bitcoin to Bitcoin Cash 7/23/2017 $2810.00 $2730 $413 $4151 $669 $7711 $788 $9900 $298 $9581 $237 $33581 $455 $22465 $122 Ratio 6.61 6.20 9.79 33.22 40.43 73.80 184.14 . Litecoin to Litecoin Cash 2/21/2018 $232.85 $213.35 $4.71 $169.05 $0.29 $49.15 $0.011 $73.45 $.00601 $227.23 $0.0114 $103.45 $0.00801 Ratio 45.30 584.95 4,388.39 12,221 19,932 12,916 . Monero to Monero Classic 4/20/2018 $238 $271 $6.40 $203 $8.14 $69.52 $0.95 $55.07 $0.18 $401.21 $0.63 $266.56 $0.34 Ratio 42.34 24.94 72.87 311.13 635.83 774.88 . Bitcoin Cash to Bitcoin SV 11/9/2018 $574 $544 $68.75 $109 $97.42 $282 $130 $263 $160 $716 $192 Today- $115 Today- $51 Ratio 7.91 1.12 2.17 1.64 3.73 2.25

Looking at this data, the 5/6 coin splits had the new chain outperform the original chain after 1 month, but only 1/6 chains (BCH to BSV) had the new chain outperform the old chain over time and this was a split of a split.

If my Ethereum splits into 2 separate tokens, I may hold on to the new one for a brief period, but I’m going to make sure I sell it before the year is out!

submitted by /u/002timmy
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