Crypto market cycles will be different from the past

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Looking at historic data like the rainbow chart, bitcoin dominance, total market cap and number of coins/tokens in the crypto world, I’d say the bear and bull markets coming will be substantially different from the past.

Let’s look at some charts.

Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart

(Source: https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-rainbow-chart)

MARKET CAP BTC DOMINANCE, % (CALCULATED BY TRADINGVIEW)

(Source: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CRYPTOCAP-BTC.D)

Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap

(Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts)

Number of cryptocurrencies worldwide from 2013 to November 2021

(Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/863917/number-crypto-coins-tokens)

My analysis:

Rainbow chart: Given the dispersion of projects and retail, it is likely bitcoin chart won’t touch the red zone nor the blue. Will be more stable. Dominance chart: Normally after a low BTC dominance comes a bear market. That was before binance (and BNB), before Cryptodotcom (and CRO) and before many game changing projects. Latest BTC dominance before a bear market was 40 in January 2018. Think next bear market won’t come before BTC dominance reached 20 or so. Market cap: Last bear market brought the market cap down from 900M to 150M USD. Next one will probably bring the market cap down from 5T to 1 T USD. It means that we won’t see our portfolio lowering more than 50% from what we have today if we didn’t take too much risk. Number of projects: This is where I think we will have a substantial correction and a lot of non sense out there will have to disappear.

Conclusion:

We shall remain bullish!

submitted by /u/jmlinpt
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