Looking at historic data like the rainbow chart, bitcoin dominance, total market cap and number of coins/tokens in the crypto world, I’d say the bear and bull markets coming will be substantially different from the past.
Let’s look at some charts.
Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart
MARKET CAP BTC DOMINANCE, % (CALCULATED BY TRADINGVIEW)
Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap
Number of cryptocurrencies worldwide from 2013 to November 2021
Rainbow chart: Given the dispersion of projects and retail, it is likely bitcoin chart won’t touch the red zone nor the blue. Will be more stable. Dominance chart: Normally after a low BTC dominance comes a bear market. That was before binance (and BNB), before Cryptodotcom (and CRO) and before many game changing projects. Latest BTC dominance before a bear market was 40 in January 2018. Think next bear market won’t come before BTC dominance reached 20 or so. Market cap: Last bear market brought the market cap down from 900M to 150M USD. Next one will probably bring the market cap down from 5T to 1 T USD. It means that we won’t see our portfolio lowering more than 50% from what we have today if we didn’t take too much risk. Number of projects: This is where I think we will have a substantial correction and a lot of non sense out there will have to disappear.