In Q4 2021 or Q1 2022, Ethereum will finally have it’s fabled merge to Proof of Stake. Not only is this the first step in creating a more scalable Ethereum, it will have an extreme effect on the price of ETH.
When Ethereum goes Proof of Stake, miners will no longer be needed and stakers will be used instead. With mining out of the picture, less coins will have to be created to incentivize block proposers. This means that the amount of ETH that is being issued will drop 90% to 0.2 ETH per block. It is also more inconvenient for stakers to sell their ETH, so this will cause a massive supply crunch as not enough ETH is being sold to meet demand. This will inevitably cause a rise in price.
When EIP-1559 caused a 30% reduction in supply, there was roughly a 30% increase in price. It is difficult to predict what a 90% reduction in supply would cause but my estimate would be around a 100% increase based on what we saw with EIP-1559.
I am still massively bullish on ETH, and I think we will continue to see bullish action into next year regardless of how the broader market performs.